Reading the chapter on 'asset stranding' in Malm & Carton's book #Overshoot and the rather dry description they give of the cascade of economic dominoes that fall if we implemented (even a fraction, a beginning, a part of) mitigation is truly apocalyptic. It really hammers home the enormous interests that are (literally) invested in maintaining business as usual.
There is no government on earth that will willingly implement mitigation out of their own free will. They will need to be forced in some way.
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“#Overshoot is de levensverzekering van business as usual. Het is de dominante overtuiging dat het economisch schadelijk is om fossiele brandstoffen te beperken en uit te faseren, dat het ondoenbaar is fossiele productie af te bouwen, maar dat we een technologische oplossing zullen uitwerken die ons zal behoeden voor de totale catastrofe.”
@tine sprak met Andreas Malm.
apache.be · Historicus en klimaatactivist Andreas Malm: “Mijn pessimisme is geen reden om afzijdig te blijven”“Om onder 1,5 graad opwarming te blijven, is de afbraak van de fossiele industrie onvermijdelijk.”
https://www.europesays.com/2055860/ Il 6 maggio l’Italia ha raggiunto l’Overshoot Day. Perché è una pessima notizia #Italia #italy #maggio #notizia #notizie #overshoot #perché #pessima #raggiunto
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@cstross I actually hope so. We (all humans on this planet who live in modern societies) are deep in ecological #overshoot and can't just go on like this. The global economy is more than double the size a hypothetical sustainable economy could reach, we won't ever become sustainable unless the economy shrinks dramatically, which of course would mean the collapse of Capitalism. If Trump manages to speed up the inevitable #collapse of the world economy, we might slow down the ecological collapse for a while (but only if we can get rid of the oligarchs very quickly afterwards).
There is no way to avoid chaos and collapse now, but how and when certain systems collapse makes a huge difference for the future evolution of organic life on Earth, and whether the genus Homo is still a part of the biosphere for a few more millions of years or not.
Techno-solutionnisme et « overshoot » : l’illusion mortifère de la mégamachine climatique
Le « dépassement climatique » : un pari techno-solutionniste suicidaire ? Face à l’inaction politique, l’idée d’un « overshoot » (dépassement temporaire des 1,5°C) gagne du terrain. Mais compter sur des technologies non éprouvées pour refroidir la Terre plus tard relève d’une logique de mégamachine ... #Climat #TechnoSolutionnisme #Effondrement #Overshoot #geoingenierie
Homo Hortus · Techno-solutionnisme et « overshoot » : l’illusion mortifère de la mégamachine climatique🌍🚨 Le « dépassement climatique » : un pari techno-solutionniste suicidaire ? Face à l’inaction politique, l’idée d’un « overshoot » (dépassement temporaire des 1,5°C) gagne du terrain. Mais compter…
https://www.europesays.com/1980599/ Guest post: How to apportion ‘net-zero carbon debt’ if global warming overshoots 1.5C #1.5Degrees #1.5C #CarbonDioxideEmissions #Climate #ClimateChange #GlobalWarming #GuestPost #NetZero #overshoot #ParisAgreement
While it may sound repulsive to modern humans this was one of the ways old societies remained in balance with nature, i.e. sustainable.
![Marvin Harris estimated that among Paleolithic hunters 23–50% of newborn children were killed. He argued that the goal was to preserve the 0.001% population growth of that time.[168]: 15 He also wrote that female infanticide may be a form of population control.[168]: 5 Population control is achieved not only by limiting the number of potential mothers; increased fighting among men for access to relatively scarce wives would also lead to a decline in population. For example, on the Melanesian island of Tikopia infanticide was used to keep a stable population in line with its resource base.[6] Research by Marvin Harris and William Divale supports this argument, it has been cited as an example of environmental determinism.[169]](https://media.mas.to/media_attachments/files/114/252/804/593/953/434/original/64029416f8f19e29.jpg "Marvin Harris estimated that among Paleolithic hunters 23–50% of newborn children were killed. He argued that the goal was to preserve the 0.001% population growth of that time.[168]: 15 He also wrote that female infanticide may be a form of population control.[168]: 5 Population control is achieved not only by limiting the number of potential mothers; increased fighting among men for access to relatively scarce wives would also lead to a decline in population. For example, on the Melanesian island of Tikopia infanticide was used to keep a stable population in line with its resource base.[6] Research by Marvin Harris and William Divale supports this argument, it has been cited as an example of environmental determinism.[169]")
![Anthropologists have argued that those with disabilities are often viewed as bad omens as raising a child with a disability in such communities are an insurmountable hurdle.[172] For example, in southern Ethiopia, children with physical abnormalities are considered to be ritually impure or mingi, with the ability to exert an evil influence upon others, so disabled infants have traditionally been disposed of.[173]](https://media.mas.to/media_attachments/files/114/252/807/859/401/634/original/f50ebecad0e9e102.jpg "Anthropologists have argued that those with disabilities are often viewed as bad omens as raising a child with a disability in such communities are an insurmountable hurdle.[172] For example, in southern Ethiopia, children with physical abnormalities are considered to be ritually impure or mingi, with the ability to exert an evil influence upon others, so disabled infants have traditionally been disposed of.[173]")
"on est dans les clous ! " 
... du cercueil 
#Overshoot #Collapse
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@breadandcircuses Absolutely spot-on here. My own family is an endorsement of your statement: I have three children, two of them married. Both have chosen not to have children so as not to bring any innocents into the nightmare that's coming.
I'm sad that I will never have grandchildren, but I fully endorse my childrens' decisions. In fact, I'm so proud of them!
“Dat de wereld al in 2024 gemiddeld 1,5 graad warmer was, lokte bij beleidsmakers zo weinig reactie uit dat het de vraag oproept of ze die grens ooit ernstig hebben genomen.”
Collega @tine schrijft waar het op staat, met verwijzing naar het fenomenale nieuwe boek van Andreas Malm en Wim Carton, #Overshoot.
apache.be · Dan gaan we gewoon toch even boven 1,5 graad?Hebben politici de grens uit het Klimaatakkoord van Parijs ooit ernstig genomen?
France24
"Overshoot" ou l’illusion d’un retour en arrière après le dépassement des 1,5°C de réchauffement
https://mcinformactions.net/overshoot-ou-l-illusion-d-un-retour-en-arriere-apres-le-depassement-des-1-5oc
#rechauffementclimatique #overshoot #geoingenierie
mcinformactions.net"Overshoot" ou l'illusion d'un retour en arrière après le dépassement des 1,5°C de réchauffement - [mcInform@ctions]
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a word about delays
this is not an actual archetype, but it can be said that a delay in a balancing loop almost always causes some problems, especially in a #limitstogrowth situation. #overshoot is the best example for that. and everything can be a delay. a stock is a delay in itself. a flow can and often has delays. delays are probably the thing i have the most respect of in a system.
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@gerrymcgovern I think you might find it interesting to check out the first video (or however many catch your interest) of this playlist on "Metastatic Modernity" by Dr Tom Murphy of UCSD.
Murphy has been writing on energy, economy, modernity, and their intersection with planetary limits for quite a while at his Do The Math blog, and although that started in a pretty standard "green tech" position, as he started to look at things from a deeper, and rather darker, perspective which in 2021 he turned into an e-textbook _Energy and Human Ambition on a Finite Planet_.
Anyway, sorry for dropping in from nowhere.
#climate #modernity #DoTheMath #overshoot #LimitsToGrowth #sustainability
https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvUde-N4t8XncjoHqK0GsE7a6EXMRiyjH&si=10IAmdlEF16Q2BnS
consent.youtube.comAvant d'accéder à YouTube
Garden 
“The modernity project does not define humanity. Humanity is much older. It’s too late for modernity to succeed but it’s not too late for humanity to succeed.”
“Most people are extremely depressed by what I say. I’m not. Not at all. I think it’s exciting to imagine what the future can be. You’re only depressed if you’re in love with modernity. If you’re not, it’s not devastating to imagine it disappearing.”
https://news.mongabay.com/2024/12/renewables-wont-save-us-from-climate-catastrophe-experts-warn-what-will/
#Overshoot #SystemChange
Mongabay Environmental News · Renewables won’t save us from climate catastrophe, experts warn; what will?In 2022, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres declared that the “lifeline of renewable energy can steer [the] world out of climate crisis.” In saying so, he echoed a popular and tantalizing idea: that, if we hurry, we can erase the climate emergency with widespread adoption of renewables in the form of solar panels, wind farms, electric […]
The best & most comprehensive article I have read yet about the impending #collapse due to #overshoot, and what we can, but why we won't, do anything about it.
Thank you Jack of all trades @jackofalltrades
Overshoot: Cognitive Obsolescence
And the Population Conundrum
Medium · Overshoot: Cognitive Obsolescence
And the Population Conundrum
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K-selected species have slower reproduction & longer generation times, their responses to changes in population size are delayed, which creates lower-amplitude, slower oscillations in their populations.
they are selected for by evolution regarding resource use, hence K-selected.
humans like other big mammals once were a K-selected species, even when elon musk is flying around with his jet having 3 million kids - we still are.
#overshoot
#systemsthinking
#systemsdynamics
@systemsthinking
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#systemsdynamics-wise there are 2 different types of species:
r-selected species like small mammals have rapid reproduction & short generation times, so they respond quickly to environmental changes. they produce many offspring, so they face overshooting K often, leading to high-amplitude, rapid oscillations in their population stocks, especially when delayed responses are present.
they are selected for by reproduction rates, hence r-selected.
